erato_ Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Soooo, I'm probably not the only one here who always doubts whether or not to open a Discovered Treasure Chest from the Forgotten Shore. I keep thinking I may finally have some luck, but always end up with worthless items. What do you guys think is most profitable; sell the Chests or open them at the chance of gaining an expensive item? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberrykiwi141 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well since you get them for free ... open them ... if you need/want the NPs you would gain from them ... sell it :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siniri Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I've sold all of mine. If someone did the calculations and showed that the odds of getting an expensive item beat the NP you'd get from selling them all, I'd reconsider. But I did an experiment on scratchcards. I had hoarded all my non-base level ones to scratch for levels when I got close to leveling up, and i tracked my results with each one compared to their SW price. I found that the SW price beat the rewards, and the rarer the card, the more it did. People tend to remember their wins from things like this, as rare as they are (compounded by the fact that others only gloat about their wins and don't tend to say "I opened a such-and-such and it was full of junk"), and don't remember all the losses, so they overestimate their odds of winning. Thus, they're willing to pay more for the item than it's actually worth. This might not be true for the discovered chest, of course, but since it's held true for every other chance item I've tested it on (I also tested it on certain goodie bags, etc.), and the theory is based on known psychological biases, I'm not willing to lose NP testing it for the chest. If people pooled their resources, we might be able to figure out the probabilities, but we'd probably need to open at least 1000 chests to get the variability low enough to have a reasonable estimate. And that's a lot of NP to spend on a test. Some people like to take the risk, thinking they'll be luckier than average. But only half the people are, and in the long run, everyone moves closer to the average. So I'd rather just get myself the guaranteed, predictable NP from selling. In the long term, I win out. (Even if you get it for free, there's still the opportunity cost of opening vs. selling -- if you open it, you lose out on the opportunity to sell it for its going price. Of course, you can view it as a game, and consider the price difference the cost of playing. As I said, some people like to take the risk, just as some people like to play the lottery or spin the wheels.) beruichi, Bright ^_^, granny63020 and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombiiesque Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I used to open them. And I never got anything good out of them - so now I just pop them into my shop. I don't even bother anymore thinking about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
missmadiemay Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Oh man! I didn't even know you could open them! Silly me, I have been selling. What are the expensive prizes you can win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberrykiwi141 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 missmadiemay: go here http://thedailyneopets.com/articles/forgotten-shore-daily It has a list of stuff that you can get from them. Potions are mainly what people want. the Magical Pirate Krawk Plushie is not confirmed as a prize yet missmadiemay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lianakos Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I have never open a chest! I always sell them because I want to buy something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcpet Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I've only ever gotten two or three chests from the Forgotten Shore and I opened all of them, based on the idea that it was free anyway. But I think siniri's explanation just changed my mind about opening them ever again. Never thought about economics and opportunity cost at all hahaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rinoa812 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I too usually open them since they are free =) but maybe selling is more profitable. I just like the adrenaline rush when you finally do get something good =) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venus0523 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Wow, all the time I've been playing and I've never gotten one....I think I'd have to open it, when/if I do! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
precieuxly Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I sell them as well even though they are free. I had my fair share of them already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
missmadiemay Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I have been selling mine as well, but I was going to try my luck and the very first and only one I have opened was a pirate kacheek morphing potion! That was super exciting for me, as I haven't had much luck lately :laughingsmiley: :laughingsmiley: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jally_muse Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 How much do they usually sell for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iunicornbarf Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 They sell for about 15k. I sell them, but once I put it in the money tree and another time I accidentily offered it to a trade... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nadabrovitchka Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I didnt know they could be open, but I guess I never got one. If I did, I sold it. However I doubt it, I never got nice items from forgoten shore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emkatrine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I always sell them. But really, you could just choose to see them as a lucky dip, considering you get them for "free" when you find them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nub Jeff Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I've opened all 5 that I've gotten and only gotten junk items so far. That being said I'll still probably open the next one I get because i can't resist the gamble. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorna Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I have opened a couple of them never found much so I started selling them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reinewen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I feel inclined to believe that Siniri hit the nail on the head! :P I think I opened about two of them and then realised it was improbable that I would manage to get any good prizes out of them. Now whenever I find one, I just sell them for around 17k. That's more than enough to buy 1000 stocks for the day, so even if there was a slight chance of winning grand prizes I would much rather guarantee a profit. As someone who only buys stocks out of nps on hand(just so I know that my bank balance can and will only increase) it's actually pretty handy to have that small profit from the chests every now and then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
010_pipsy_010 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I opened a few treasure chests at in the hope I could get a Draik Egg or Krawk morphing potion for an avatar. Now I have both these avatars I just sell the unopened treasure chests in my shop :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LillytheGrundo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I used to really struggle with this and think of the lost NP if I opened a chest and got a junk item. And then I realized Neopets is a game! Open them! Who cares!? So now I always open and never feel regret. Since the summer I have been really lucky and received three morphing potions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeló Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I open them. It's fun and exciting. I could do without the 15k from selling. And I might get something great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rntracy1 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Oh man! I didn't even know you could open them! Silly me, I have been selling. What are the expensive prizes you can win? I know your response is old (nov 2013) but I just came across it by trying to decide if I should open the 9 chests I have in my SDB. Anyway, if you didn't know you could open them, what did you think people were paying thousands of NPs for? LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
missmadiemay Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I know your response is old (nov 2013) but I just came across it by trying to decide if I should open the 9 chests I have in my SDB. Anyway, if you didn't know you could open them, what did you think people were paying thousands of NPs for? LOL. Haha I had no idea! I actually did open a few back then and managed to get a pirate poogle morphing potion ;) I haven't gotten any from the shore since though. rntracy1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeAye Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I would probably always open them just because I pray I'll be lucky to find something rare! I used to get them before my hiatus but I haven't gotten one since. *Fingers crossed* Mostly I want the avatar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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